Validation of the IHE type 2 diabetes cohort model in the Japanese clinical setting

Nilsson K, Fridhammar A, Ota R, Sall Jensen M, Willis M, Persson S

Validation of the IHE type 2 diabetes cohort model with new Japanese risk equations for the Japanese clinical setting

The IHE Type 2 Diabetes Cohort Model (IHE-DCM-T2) is frequently used to estimate cost-effectiveness of interventions for type 2 diabetes in different parts of the world. The model has recently been updated to include Japanese risk equations, to enable applications fully aligned with the Japanese healthcare context. In this study, we extend prior model validation of IHE-DCM-T2 to cover the newly added Japanese risk equations for applications in Japan’s clinical setting and healthcare system.

A comprehensive validation was performed, including:

Face validity – assessed through expert review of model assumptions and structure.
Verification – by code review and pre-specified stress tests.
Predictive accuracy – tested by comparing model predictions to real-world outcomes from 28 Japanese studies with 120 endpoints in total, assessing concordance visually, with regression lines, and with several error measures.
Subgroup analyses examined dependent and independent endpoints, along with mortality, microvascular, and macrovascular outcomes. Sensitivity analyses assessed robustness to variations in scale and sample size.

IHE-DCM-T2 demonstrated face validity and correct implementation. External validation against 120 endpoints showed good alignment between predicted and observed events. Predictions were more accurate for dependent than independent endpoints, as expected. Among endpoint categories, macrovascular events had the lowest average errors. Predictive accuracy was consistent across alternative test specifications.

This comprehensive validation of the IHE-DCM-T2, augmented with Japanese-specific risk equations, demonstrated its suitability for health technology assessments and resource allocation decisions for T2D in the Japanese clinical setting and healthcare system.

Publication

/Modeling

Validation of the IHE type 2 diabetes cohort model in the Japanese clinical setting

Nilsson K, Fridhammar A, Ota R, Sall Jensen M, Willis M, Persson S

Publication

/Modeling

Validation of the IHE type 2 diabetes cohort model in the Japanese clinical setting

Nilsson K, Fridhammar A, Ota R, Sall Jensen M, Willis M, Persson S

New IHE publication on validation of the IHE Type 2 Diabetes Cohort Model with newly added Japanese risk equations

IHE welcomes a new team member!

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